Sound Familiar?

Okay.  Imagine with me this presidential election:

There is no incumbent running for office.  No Vice President.  No President.  The race is wide open

The United States sits just months from economically poor conditions...and yet there is still hope as we sit two years from a new decade.

Technology is rapidly changing...affecting job markets and the way people communicate.

In one corner of the presidential race we have a moderate Republican from the western United States.  He is so moderate in his overall beliefs that he's frequently courted by Democrats.  Both sides of the aisle like him.

He spent significant time overseas during war and came to have a deep understanding for what it can do to societies.  He once said, "Dictators rule from the top down, Democracies from the bottom up."  And he has a lot of friends in Washington, having spent a long time there in the top echelons of American government.

Oh, and his only real competition for the nomination was a once popular Governor.

In the other corner, we find a New York Democrat.  Identified with powerful administations of the past, this candidate has trouble shaking a connection to other politicians of influence.  Also, the Democrat's nominee faces prejudice...being unlike any President before...and is well known for having argued publicly for civil equality.  The nominee was a champion of the working class...fighting for better labor laws.

The Democrat is known to have wanted the presidency for a long time.

Sound familiar?

Well...the Republican is not John McCain.  The Democrat is not Hillary Clinton (nor is it Barack Obama).

And it's not 2008.

It's 1928.

The Republican is Herbert Hoover.    The Democrat is Al Smith.

Hoover was courted by the Democrats before he became a Republican. And when he won, he became the first President born west of the Mississippi River.  He beat the former Governor of Illinois for the nomination.

He was well liked in Washington, having served as Under Secretary of Commerce.

Smith was a popular man too...and was later greatly involved in the construction of the Empire State Building.  But he was Catholic.  And that didn't sit well with a lot of Americans in the 1920s.  Remember, John Kennedy was the first Catholic elected President (and that was more than three decades later).  He was also associated with the corrupt Tammany Hall government in NY.

Hoover won in a landslide.  And yet...months after he took office, The Great Depression began.

He did not win reelection.

Eighty years ago.  (I feel like Paul Harvey should say, "And now you know the rest of the story...")

Amazing how history has a way of repeating itself in small but fascinating ways...

Just thought you might find it interesting.  Have a great weekend.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Comments

[Dana]

There is never an incumbant running for office, although there might be an incumbent. I was going to read your blog but now I can't.

[Dana]

Well, I have read the blog now. It was quite interesting. You had me fooled for the first half.

[Peggy]

I speak for those readers who have actually made a mistake before ... I enjoy your blogposts and your insight, Tom ... with or without typos. Please keep up the great work.

[DWE]

TA,
Don't give your readers the implication that President Herbert Hoover "caused" the depression.
Remember your micro and macro economics courses, and the "free market...supply-side" economist, Mr Friedman. It is the supply and demand,the gold standard, too much money chasing too few goods, etc.
Excellent, and surprising post!
DWE

[Mike Hughes]

John McCain should do the country a great service and get out of the race and let a true Republican have the nomination! John McCain will do anything and say anything to get elected. To me there is no difference between him and Hillary! I am a veteran and will not support him. I have voted Republican all my life. But, I would vote Democratic (God forbid) before I vote for John McCain! If you win we will have two Democrats running against each other. It turns my stomach to see Joe Lieberman in your corner as well. The very idea that a man who was almost John Kerry's running mate gets the Republican node. I pray for your defeat in the Fall election!! I am still a republican and will for the first time either vote Democratic or abstain from voting the presidential!! This country is lost if you get in office!!
I am proud of your military service like any one who has been in the military. I can't believe a fellow will get in who will sell us out to the Dems and wants to stay in Iraq for 100 yrs.

[Marilyn Townsend]

Mr. Abrahams, from Ron Paul's home town, just south of you, why not give him a little attention, since national media has chosen to keep him blacked out. I expected more from our Houston stations.

[Marilyn Townsend]

I am so sorry, Mr. Abrahams. I will read your column faithfully from now on. And I thank you for talking about Dr. Ron Paul. I guess we are wearing our hearts on our sleeves here in Lake Jackson right now, as thousands of others are who are Ron Paul supports. Again, I truly apologize for jumping to the wrong conclusion.

[Marilyn Townsend]

DWE, Dr. Ron Paul has gotten more donations from the military than any other candidate. PLEASE consider him. He has been blacked out by national TV, or he would be on top. He tells it like it is, and Washington DC doesn't like that. Best Wishes

[Marilyn Townsend]

My last post was meant for MIKE HUGHES. Excuse me, DWE.

However, Ron Paul would welcome your vote, too! Cheers from Lake Jackson.

[DWE]

Marilyn,

You are excused. However, I will not vote for Ron Paul, whom I believe has the first name "Ronald", like Ronald Reagan. Therefore, I think he should use his full name, and I sorta' distrust a politician who doesn't use their full name. Not only that I disagree completely on his stance on terrorism and the Irag Liberation Movement, among other policies.
DWE

[L.Harnage]

I think the column is wonderful! Such amazing and interesting facts! You are just like Paul Harvey, just cuter.

[L.Harnage]

I think the column is wonderful! Such amazing and interesting facts! You are just like Paul Harvey, just cuter.

[jack]

Good links. Thanks. It's been an interesting year and it's only beginning. But beware what you buy into from here on.

[MM]

Hey "DWE":
Yeah, remember "Supply-side" vs. "Demand-side". Hoover was a supply sider, like Reagan, Bush and Bush. The only problem is that the money supply is finite (relative to inflation-adjusted growth, and deficits) and when it all goes to the top (where is is not spent) the capitalist engine grinds to a halt...sound familiar? The "trickle on" theory is as laughable as the Laffer curve! Profit in a capitalist system is only made from manufacturing something...not just marking it up and passing it around at a higher price to dilute the volume. Now add a "global" economy, where all manufacturing has left our "region"...all we have left is the "mark it up and pass it around" model...an empty, diluted, inflationary, slow downward spiral. Great! Let's make it better by "more of the same" McCain, or better yet, McDreamy Obama fluff. The only good option is Hillary Clinton's "demand-side" policies that focus on spending the war money here, transitioning the oil gouls into home-grown (as in "manufactured") alternative energy production and making having healthcare a small "part" of one's life and not a the arbiter of life.

[MM]

Hey "DWE":
Yeah, remember "Supply-side" vs. "Demand-side". Hoover was a supply sider, like Reagan, Bush and Bush. The only problem is that the money supply is finite (relative to inflation-adjusted growth, and deficits) and when it all goes to the top (where is is not spent) the capitalist engine grinds to a halt...sound familiar? The "trickle on" theory is as laughable as the Laffer curve! Profit in a capitalist system is only made from manufacturing something...not just marking it up and passing it around at a higher price to dilute the volume. Now add a "global" economy, where all manufacturing has left our "region"...all we have left is the "mark it up and pass it around" model...an empty, diluted, inflationary, slow downward spiral. Great! Let's make it better by "more of the same" McCain, or better yet, McDreamy Obama fluff. The only good option is Hillary Clinton's "demand-side" policies that focus on spending the war money here, transitioning the oil gouls into home-grown (as in "manufactured") alternative energy production and making having healthcare a small "part" of one's life and not a the arbiter of life.

[DWE]

MM,

Where did you get the idea that President Hoover was a "supply side" supporter?

Hoover had no idea or economic experience, even with his economic advisors (Keynesians) on how the American Capitalist system operated.

As for "Evil Marxist" Hillary's plan, it is socialism in the worse form. Government ownership, planning, disbursement all rolled into one Marxist package with inflation out the "gazool", Jimmy "(The Dolt)" Carter interest rates at 20%+. You better polish your silver plated soup spoon and resole your faux leather shoes, 'cause your going to be standing in line for a long time. Soup lines, homeless shelter lines, unemployment lines, government apple distribution center lines, Salvation Army clothing lines, you name it you will be there...as a famous, knowledgable, intelligent, "know-all", "see-all" guru has said..."DON'T DOUBT ME...JUST DON'T DOUBT ME"!
All this "on loan from God".