"It's The War, Stupid!" Or is it?

In 1992, Bill Clinton adviser James Carville famously hung a sign in the campaign's Little Rock office.

Its point was to keep the effort on message.  And it read, in part, "It's the economy, stupid".

The idea was to beat George HW Bush on the issue on which he was not as strong.  The Clinton camp knew it couldn't compete on the foreign policy.  So it chose an issue they thought made Bush vulnerable.

It worked.

Now, sixteen years later, we are teetering on recession (technically we need to experience two quarters of negative growth for a recession) and yet the issue that keeps rearing its head (ahead of the economy) is the war.

This week, it is particularly headline-worthy because, as of this week, we've now been at war in Iraq for five years.

And each of the candidates has hung their hat (and their cattle) on a clear position about our involvement there.

Hillary Clinton wants to begin the process of withdrawing troops within 60 days of taking office.

Barack Obama says he needs 16 months to do the same.

Ron Paul, still in the race despite no chance of winning the nomination, wants to pull out now.  He believes we are there unconstitutionally.  He is the most vehemently opposed to the war.

John McCain staked his political future on the troop surge.  And he is still leaning on the war as a primary focus of his campaign.  He spent much of the last week in the region.  And despite an embarrassing error during the tail end of the visit there, he has the most to gain (and lose) if the war stays a major issue.  He wants to keep troops there to insure success in Iraq, he says.  He has no time line for withdrawing troops.

But as homeowners keep losing their houses (foreclosure up 60% in February), the dollar keeps losing value, and the financial markets struggle (or "retrace gains" as smug money managers like to say), the war may take a back seat to the economy.

In exit polling throughout the primary season both issues have been atop the list.  But increasingly the economy is the big topic of concern among voters. 

You could make the argument that the war is the economy (and vise versa) but that, I think, is an oversimplified analysis.

So as we see the winter slip to spring, and then the summer heat up prior to the conventions...don't be surprised to see a dual issue campaign. 

It will be the war.  And it will be the economy.  Or it will be the economy and the war. 

There will probably be signs hanging in the headquarters of both campaigns proclaiming something to that effect the closer we get to the vote in November.

And, by the way, the other two topics hanging on that sign in Little Rock in 1992...health care and "change vs. more of the same".  We've come a long way, huh?

Thanks for reading. TA

Comments

[Marilyn Townsend]

As far as Dr. Paul saying that he would bring the troops home from Iraq right away, that's not exactly what he has said. He has said that he would bring them home right away, in the safest manner. He has not had the media coverage that the others have had to explain his issues, on Iraq or anything else. People who really want to know how he stands on the issues have read and searched and found out. All the rest, which is most people, have sat in front of their TV's being fed a lot of "stuff" about the other candidates, and none about Dr. Ron Paul. Our country will keep going down the tubes without him as President.