TheVote

The Cash That Keeps On Coming

The economy may be in turmoil, but Americans must have money stuffed under their mattresses.

abcnews.com

Both presidential candidates raised a lot of money in July.

Barack Obama's camp announced it took in $51 million.  That's not a record.  But it is a lot.  It's nearly twice what John McCain raised during the same period.

The Arizona Senator brought in $27 million.

But he'll not need that money after the GOP convention (which ends the first week of September).  He's taking the federal funding which gives him a lump sum of more than $80 million.

From RealClearPolitics:

"At the end of July, we still had $21.4 million cash on hand, which gives us plenty of money in addition to our ongoing fundraising to prosecute a very active campaign in the month of August," (Campaign Manager Rick) Davis said. "By the end of August...we will be able and happy to report that we have no more cash on hand in the old primary account. That being said, we will have access to over $100 million in the first week of September."

Obama, on the other hand, will keep raising money up to election day.  He's foregone the public funding because of his own cash-mining acumen.  It's a move that McCain has criticizes for months now, after Obama initially hinted last year that he would take the public funding should he become the nominee. 

And what continues to amaze is the increments in which Obama takes in cash.  Though the FEC numbers for July are not in, the Obama campaign announced late last week that the campaign had surpassed two million donors.  And the vast majority of those donations are in small dollar amounts.

AP

From Obama's campaign:

More than 65,000 New Donors Contributed to the Obama Campaign in July, Bringing July Total to Over $51 Million

Obama campaign has $65.8 million on hand

CHICAGO – Senator Barack Obama’s campaign announced today that more than 65,000 new donors contributed to the Obama campaign during the month of July, bringing the total raised for the month to over $51 million.  More than 2 million people have now contributed to the campaign.

“The 65,000 new donors to the Obama campaign demonstrate just how strongly the American people are looking to fundamentally change business as usual in Washington.  We are proud of the millions of volunteers and more than two million donors to the Obama campaign who will provide the backbone of our campaign to put America back on track and reject the old politics and failed Bush policies, which is all John McCain is offering,” said David Plouffe, campaign manager of Obama for America.

Here's a comparison between McCain and Obama's fundraising donors from the Los Angeles Times:

The McCain campaign said it now has 600,000 donors, and in a posting on its website, the RNC said it had reached 1 million donors. The Obama campaign has said it has passed the 2-million-donor mark. Unlike McCain, Obama has rejected public financing. Experts have predicted that each side will spend more than $400 million on the general election.

Some have wondered how long Obama could keep up his big money juggernaut.  The answer appears to be "at least through July".

We'll see if the money advantage eventually translates into an equally big disparity in the state-to-state polls and eventually votes.

Thanks for reading. TA

The Non-Debate Debate Before The Debates

Tonight is the first square off between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain.

They will meet at Saddleback Church in California for what's being called "The Civil Forum On The Presidency".

Here's a link to the official press release for the event.

It will air on cable networks from 7PM to 9PM Houston time.

Here's more about it:

The Saddleback Civil Forum series was established to promote civil discourse and the common good of all. The first forum, held during Passover week this year, featured five Jewish World War II Holocaust survivors sharing their stories. In September, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair will be featured.

Although Rick Warren’s primary calling is to proclaim the Gospel Truth of salvation in Jesus Christ, he created the Civil Forums to further three additional life goals: helping people accept responsibility, helping the Church regain credibility, and encouraging our society to return to civility.

At the candidates’ request, this two-hour event will be held in a non-debate format, and will be open to all media. Both candidates also requested that questions be posed exclusively by Warren rather than by a panel or members of the audience. Each candidate will converse separately with Warren for approximately an hour, beginning with Sen. Obama, as determined by a coin toss.

Here's a link to great article from The Orange County Register that gives even more background about the venue and the event.  And here's more about the "moderator", Pastor Rick Warren from his website RickWarren.com.

Pastor Rick Warren/ Photo by Scott Tokar / Saddleback Church

The candidates won't actually "face off".  They will appear separately on the stage with Warren.  So there's no debate and rebuttal.  But expect the same atmosphere and risk/rewards of a typical presidential debate (the first of which is scheduled for September 26 in Mississippi).

And it should give both candidates the last chance to talk beyond sound bites until they accept their respective party's nomination over the next few weeks.

Thanks for reading.  TA

A New Kind Of Politics? Hardly.

When it was clear that John McCain and Barack Obama were going to be the presumptive nominees of their respective parties, both promised a new kind of politics.

John McCain announced that he would take the high road and respect his opponent.

Barack Obama talked about focusing on the issues and not getting dragged down into the mud.

But both have already shown that they are no different than the many who've come before them.

As I watched the opening ceremonies of the Olympics on Friday night, I saw a John McCain ad pop up on the screen.  It's part of the $6 million dollars worth of advertising he plans to spend during NBC's Olympic coverage (Obama is spending $5 million).

The ad was negative.  It started out by criticizing Obama's energy plans before touting McCain's ideas.

It is just the latest in a series of negative spots run by the McCain campaign.  Here's another:

On McCain's website there is a reference to Obama's suggestion that maintaining proper tire pressure in our vehicles can help save fossil fuels:

John McCain says we need offshore oil drilling and we need it now. Senator Barack Obama has consistently opposed offshore drilling - calling it a "gimmick." Senator Obama's solution to high gas prices is telling Americans to make sure their tires are inflated.

Today, we're asking for your help in putting Senator Obama's "tire gauge" energy policy to the test. With an immediate donation of $25 or more below, we will send you an "Obama Energy Plan" tire pressure gauge.

A tire gauge?  Isn't that a little much?

Obama is no better.  He consistently talks about McCain on the campaign trail.  One of his favorite lines is, "John McCain is deserving of our honor and respect.  He is a true patriot...but...but".  He pauses for effect while the crowd laughs and then he slams McCain for being a flip-flopper.

Obama was running negative ads last winter, just ahead of the early primaries.  Those were targeted as Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.  He ran them in March against Clinton as the battle for the nomination reached its height.

He ran his first negative ad against McCain in early July.  Here's part of the ad's text from The Associated Press:

"On gas prices, John McCain's part of the problem," the Obama ad states. "McCain and Bush support a drilling plan that won't produce a drop of oil for seven years. McCain will give more tax breaks to big oil. He's voted with Bush 95 percent of the time.

McCain's camp seems to have gone more negative than Obama's to this point.

But neither man is clean.

And my fear is, that despite the promise of a new honorable kind of politics, we will only fall deeper into the muck as we trudge through these final three months of the campaign.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Anatomy Of A Flip Flop

We hear the phrase "flip flop" tossed around pretty loosely in politics these days.

Both John McCain and Barack Obama are accused of being "flip floppers".

What exactly does that mean?

NPR aired a story last month about the definition of a political flip flop. You can listen to the entire report by click here. It runs just under 5 minutes and is very well done.

Here is an excerpt:

According to William Safire, author of Safire's Political Dictionary, the term "flip-flop" dates to Richard Nixon's presidency. Safire worked for Nixon as a speechwriter.

"I was doing a speech on imposing wage in price controls," Safire said. "John Connolly, who is the secretary of the treasury, then warned Nixon that he'd be charged with flip-flopping. Nixon's response was, 'Circumstances change.' "

Circumstances change for a lot of politicians, and not all flip-flops are created equal. Voters take some of them in stride. Others are devastating.

The story points out "flip flops" by John Kerry, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Barack Obama.

John McCain is tagged a "flip flopper" for a variety of changes in position.  The Carpetbagger Report details more than 70 instances of what it calls "Juke Box John" changing his tune.

The Washington Post lists a group of "Top Obama Flip Flops".

In late June, CNN.com wrote an article about both McCain and Obama fighting the "flip flopper" label:

Both sides tried to go on offense, with the Obama camp accusing McCain of "yet another flip-flop" on the issue of oil drilling and the McCain camp saying Obama broke his word on the issue of campaign financing.

There is a difference between "flip flopping" and changing ones mind based on new information.  The problem is finding that fine line where the difference applies.  Harder still is affixing it to an opponent without appearing to be a hypocrite.

Flip floppers change their minds based on the prevailing political winds.  A mind changer is one who alters a position at the risk of political unpopularity or alienation.

Are both McCain and Obama flipping and flopping to gain favor with particular segments of the electorate?  Are both of them changing their minds based on shifting circumstances?

It's hard to say.

One minute I am convinced they are both classic, pandering flip floppers.

Then I change my mind.

Thanks for reading.  TA

McCain Nation

Barack Obama may have his world tour, but now John McCain has his own nation,

According to the campaign:

McCain Nation is a powerful online tool, built exclusively for our supporters across the country to plan events to help spread John McCain's message.

This is not a new idea.  The Obama and Hillary Clinton campaigns have used these "meet up" links for months.  But maybe this is a sign that McCain's campaign has realized how far behind it is lagging in the ethereal world of the web.

 

Through the website McCain supporters can either set up or find events to go to within their communities:

Our first national event will be held on Thursday, August 14th at 7pm ET, and we're asking you to start planning your event right away. McCain Nation events across the country will have the opportunity to interact with a prominent McCain campaign official as part of the first national event day. Event hosts will also receive a host package and have exclusive access to other resources.

This part of the McCain campaign website just went active.  When I typed in the zip code of abc13, no events showed up.  I would guess that will change as August 14th approaches.

Something like this could turn out to be very useful for McCain grassroots organizers.  They are far behind Obama, given that he was forced to set up local networks in all 50 states because of the protracted primary against Clinton.

And I do wonder if it's a little late in the game...with this "offical" kickoff less than 90 days from the general election.

Thanks for reading.  TA

More On The Money

There is so much information on the FEC website that one could extrapolate just about anything from the volumes of links and uploaded documents.

On Tuesday morning, I wrote a post about Houston Zip Codes beginning with 770-- and how their residents have given more money to presidential campaign this cycle than have 30 other states.

After Rick Klein from abcnews.com "The Note" gave us a much appreciated notice, I followed up in an afternoon post with a link to lonestartimes.com.  A writer there kindly linked to what I wrote and then expanded upon it.

Then last night another blogger, AOL Political Machine's Tommy Christopher also linked and added his own twist to the mountain of data.  You can read that post here.  He also has another interesting read about CBS News and the possibility of favorable treatment for John McCain.

Now back to the $$ for a minute...let's take a look at the people in 770-- who are donating to these candidates.

Barack Obama received 8337 donations.  Here's a list of who gave money, what they claim to do for a living, and how much they gave.  You'll note some people have given multiple times.

McCain enjoyed 2850 donations from the same area.  That's a little less than 1/3 of the number of donations.  He's getting more than $560 per donation.  Obama is getting about $240 per donation.

Now for debt.  McCain's campaign debt has a couple of interesting notes.  His campaign owes American Express $1.373 million dollars.  And it owes the Secret Service $214,000. I am not certain why a presidential campaign would owe the Secret Service any money...but if I find out I will post the answer. Also it owes BB&T Visa $79,000. Those are the three largest debts for the July reporting period.

Obama's debt includes $397,000 to Blue State Digital.  $137,000 to GMBB, and $69,000 to Bank Of America.  Those are his three largest IOUs.

Running for President of The United States is not cheap.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Houston, We Have Some Cash

The Federal Election Commission has updated its numbers through the end of June.  And it breaks the way one would expect.  Both candidates numbers are up big.  And Houston is a big player in that (more on that below).

Click here to see details and an interactive map for Obama.  You can also look at a breakout of his fundraising to date below.  Note the vast majority of his fundraising continues to filter in to his coffers in checks $200 or less.  The other number than stands out to me is "Cash On Hand".  It's a staggering 71 million dollars.

Obama Donations Through 6/30/08

Contributions Individual $336,731,296 PAC $1,570 Party $0 Candidate $0 Transfers-In $1,400,000 Disbursements $267,529,180 Cash On Hand $71,670,324

Size of Donations

$200 and Under $166,951,890 $200.01 - $499 $33,177,189 $500 - $999 $28,080,747 $1000 - $1999 $41,429,339 $2000 and Over $73,830,181

And here is a link to the map and numbers for McCain.  What stands out below is that he's spent far less than half what Obama has on "Disbursements".  And yet he has a small (by comparison) 26 million in the bank.  Remember, though, the GOP has a huge treasure chest in relation to the Democrats.  And so that should offset any immediate difference in cash.  After the conventions...it changes.  Obama is free to earn what he can.  McCain is restricted to the $82 million he gets from public funding.

McCain Fundraising Through 6/30/08

Contributions Individual $120,837,764 PAC $1,161,079 Party $3,950 Candidate $0 Transfers-In $10,537,435 Disbursements $102,242,565 Cash On Hand $26,782,229

Size of Donations

$200 and Under $42,602,994 $200.01 - $499 $6,434,313 $500 - $999 $11,240,612 $1000 - $1999 $20,539,957 $2000 and Over $46,544,150 Both candidates continue to fare well in Texas. Obama has raised roughly $9.75 million here.  McCain has topped $8.33 million. And I'm burying the lead here...but The 770-- zip codes in Houston are the most generous in the state for both candidates.  McCain has pulled in $1,650,521 million.  Obama's received a little more than $2 million. What's even more amazing about those numbers is that the 770 zip codes have given more to all presidential candidates ($9,315,056) than the states of Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, West Virginia, Delaware, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Nevada, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kentucky, Indiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee Alaska, and Hawaii each have given to ALL presidential candidates this election year. That means that more than half the states in the country (30) have given less to the process than just a handful of zip codes in Houston have doled out.  Wow! Given that, you'd think we'd see even more of McCain and Obama than we already do. Thanks for reading.  TA

The Funny And Not So Funny

We'll start with the funny for Republican Presidential Candidate John McCain.

He was on Late Night with Conan O'Brien Friday night and was, as usual a funny guest.

I've included a few clips from that appearance: