Houston Blogs: TheVote

The Uphill Climb

A lot of the national polls indicate a tightening presidential race.  Many of them are within the margin of error and have so many "undecided voters" calculated into the numbers that it is impossible to know the real leader.

But as I have written in the past, national polls tell us only who might win the popular vote.  And as Al Gore can attest, it does not matter.

What matters are the state by state polls.  And in looking at the latest numbers there it is still close, but Senator John McCain has an uphill climb ahead of him.

I took a look at the RealClearPolitics electoral map and played with the following states.

To win, I figure that John McCain needs to win the following states that are currently toss up or slight leans either way:  Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, North Dakota, Montana, and Missouri. 

I did not take into account Pennsylvania.

Of the above 11 states, McCain has the lead in Montana.  Every other state shows a slight or moderate advantage for Senator Barack Obama.

While all of the states could go McCain, it will be a mammoth effort. 

As the map now stands (based on polling state to state) without any leans or toss ups, Obama wins by roughly 200 electoral votes.

That may be overplaying the lead somewhat.  But if McCain doesn't have a strong close, it could be an early night.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Romney Uncut

Former Massachusetts Governor (and presidential candidate) Mitt Romney was in Houston on Wednesday.

He was here to stump for congressional candidate (TX District 22) Pete Olson.

Olson is running against Rep. Nick Lampson.

Romney and I spoke primarily about the economy and his thoughts about where it heads and how to fix it.

Watch the uncut interview by clicking here.

Thanks for watching.  TA

Negative Charge

The presidential campaign has devolved into a mudslinging slugfest.

Here's part of a fundraising email sent by Joe Biden late Wednesday:

The McCain campaign is on the ropes, and sadly it's no surprise they're responding with attacks and outright lies.

I've heard some pretty unspeakable things in the past few days -- deeply offensive smears that we'll hear over and over again until Election Day.

John McCain and Governor Palin are setting a new low in presidential politics with their dishonorable campaign.

I can't disagree that the GOP ticket has gone negative.  It has.

But so have the Democrats.  Biden himself spent the VP debate consistently reminding Americans that, "John McCain is out of touch" or that "John McCain just doesn't get it."  That's not positive.

I can't say I am surprised.  But I am disappointed.

We have too many problems right now that require our attention.  I don't need to be told why NOT to vote for someone.  I want to be convinced of why I SHOULD vote for someone.

I am not the only one who feels this way.  From Campbell Brown of CNN:

By now you've probably heard about how ugly things have gotten out there on the campaign trail in the last 48 hours.

But we thought for just a moment we would take you back to kinder, gentler times.

Remember this:

Sen. John McCain: I pledge again a respectful campaign. A respectful campaign based on the issues and based on the stark differences we have on the vision for the future of America.

Sen. Barack Obama: I said I was looking forward to a civil substantive debate on the issues and he agreed.

McCain: I've pledged to conduct a respectful campaign and I urge, time after time, various entities within the Republican party to also do that.

Obama: We don't need John McCain and I to be demonizing each other. You won't get that from my campaign.

But according to political strategists the negative stuff always works.

Here's a thought from one such website:

According to Dean Michael Mezey of DePaul University, ... what negative advertising does is get your supporters committed and excited. Those who are indifferent are so turned off that they are less likely to vote, as are people who are for the other candidate--so not only does it help you, but it depresses turnout. The ideal, rational goal is to turn out your most committed supporters and make sure nobody else turns out.

And from political strategist Dick Morris:

Voters see negative advertising as another form of information. They so distrust politicians that they want to see their opponents tear them down so they can get at the truth. In fact, voter attitudes toward politicians are akin to their opinions of criminal defendants (they could be forgiven for confusing the two). Just as juries want a prosecutor who tears the defendant apart and punches holes in his alibi, so they want a political candidate to run ads exposing his opponent.

Regardless of whether they work or not, both of these candidates promised different kinds of campaigns.  Both of them failed.  And that's what bothers me.  Had they not told us they would be different, I would not have expected as much.

We can only hope that the winner of the race better delivers on the rest of his promises once he takes office.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Was It The Worst Ever?

Senators John McCain and Barack Obama have one debate left.

abcnews.com

It's next week in Hempstead, NY and I will be there to cover it live.

But will anyone watch?

After Tuesday night's town hall formatted debate, I am not so sure.

Here's what politico.com wrote:

With the country at one of its most interesting—not to mention terrifying—moments in a generation, John McCain and Barack Obama met in Nashville for what was surely one of the dullest and was definitely the least satisfying presidential debate in memory.

There have been boring debates before, of course. Truth be told, probably only a fraction of these encounters over 32 years since general election debates became a fixture of presidential campaigns actually delivered on their promise of great political drama. And even interesting debates are inevitably somewhat stilted affairs, as candidates cleave to their scripts and try to avoid self-inflicted blunders.

But the Belmont University showdown was something entirely different. Place the gravity of the moment next to the blah-blah-blah artifice of the rhetoric and overall insubstantiality of the evening and this is what you get: The worst presidential debate ever.

Do you think it was the worst ever? Leave us your thoughts here.

The viewership was less than the 70 million who watched the VP debate last week.  Though it was higher than the first presidential debate.  And it beat out the 2nd and 3rd debates in 2004, 200, and 1996.

Debate number two didn't do much to help either cause, according to article in the Star Tribune:

They're still undecided.

A month ago, a group of Minnesotans told interviewers for the Star Tribune's Minnesota Poll that they hadn't yet made up their mind whether to support John McCain or Barack Obama on Nov. 4.

Now, with two presidential debates and a vice-presidential debate under their belts, several said Tuesday night they still haven't made up their minds.

"They're not making it any easier for me to decide," said Kay Schroeder, one of those on the fence. "At least they're not still bickering back and forth like a couple of kids."

I wrote last week that McCain is the one who needs the push.  He is the candidate behind in the battleground polls and has work to do.  Obama essentially needs to not make a major gaffe.

I'd rather be in Obama's position right now.

And while you'd think that the final debate would be a chance for McCain to separate himself from Obama and make a move...that hasn't happened in the first two...

According to abcnews Director of Polling Gary Langer:

Do debates change things?

Directly and measurably, generally not. But indirectly or more subtly, likely so. And there are plenty of reasons to think that this year’s campaign could be especially sensitive to the candidates’ debate performances.

Debates have been held in nine presidential contests since 1960. We find just one after which the lead changed hands by a clearly significant margin: In 1980, when Ronald Reagan uttered his "are you better off" line. He gained 7 points in a post-debate poll.

So it is possible that McCain could have that big moment next week.

And while I ask will anyone watch, I should ask, "Who will watch?"

Because, really, it only matters who watches in those swing states where voters will decide the winner on November 4. 

Politics Is A Game

So have you made up your mind about this year's presidential race?

Are you already certain about the name you'll check or push or click on election day?

If not then the games below are for you.  If not, maybe they'll help you confirm your choice (or reconsider it).

Each uses a variety of statements/positions/questions/issues to find the candidate with whom you most agree.

A couple of them include third party candidates who you you may not know.

They're fun...if nothing else.

Here's a link to abcnews.com Match-O-Matic

Also good is  the USAToday Candidate Match Game

You'll find third party candidates at the Candidate Calculator, as you will with SelectSmart.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Leaning One Way Or Another

One month from today we elect our next president.

And the polls are favoring Barack Obama.  I am not writing about the national polls, which tend to mean very little to the electoral count.  I am referencing the state-by-state polls in the keys areas of the country.

Look to realclearpolitics.com for a great comparison of what it considers the 35 battleground states.

It projects 8 toss up states, six of which lean slightly to Obama.  The states are Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, and Colorado.  Each of the states are within 4.4 percentage points.  All of them voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004.

There are another seven states which lean (between 4.5 and 8.5 points) to Obama.  They are Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan, Washington, New Mexico, and New Jersey.  All of them but New Hampshire in 2000 and New Mexico in 2004 went Democrat the last two elections.

Of the remaining 20 "battleground" states, McCain has a solid lead in 11 of them and Obama in 9 of them.

This is not good for McCain.  It is very good for Obama. It reveals a flip of 27 electoral votes between September 20 and 21.  And now reflects a 101 point lead for Obama.

McCain's VP running mate, Sarah Palin, represented the ticket well in Thursday's debate.  But was it enough to reverse the mammoth drop the campaign withstood during the previous week and a half.

It is trite to restate that a lot can happen in a month.  But it can.

If you are John McCain right now, though, you have to wonder what it is that will happen that will turn a loss into a win.

If you are Barack Obama you just count the days.

Thanks for reading. TA

Generally Speaking

John McCain has built his campaign around national security. 

abcnews.com

He has repeatedly campaigned on the importance of "the surge" in Iraq and how the adding of troops and supplies made the difference in the war.

He has said many times that he would "rather lose an election and win a war".

At the debate last week he hammered on his experience and his knowledge of military strategy.

And now come the 'endorsements".

The McCain campaign is now touting:

that 300 retired generals and admirals from around the country are endorsing John McCain for president

Here's a link to the list that runs A-Z.  General David Petraeus is not among the names listed.  Though given he was the top U.S. commander in Iraq during the turnaround, you wouldn't expect to find it.

So what does this mean?  Is it inside baseball for the average voter?  Who cares if generals and admirals support McCain?

I think it does mean something.  While most voters won't be swayed by the endorsements, it does speak to the level of respect the military has for McCain.  And at a time when we find ourselves in a protracted war in two countries, that is reassuring.

But Barack Obama also has his own list of military supporters (though much smaller) and these endorsements really affect very little.

It would probably mean more to me if an endorsement goes against conventional wisdom. 

If 300 generals and admirals didn't support McCain, that would say something.

If the unions didn't support Obama, that would mean a lot. 

So while it's nice to know who supports whom...to me it's much more telling about who large groups DON'T support when we expect that they would.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Dress For The Job You Want

As I watched the first presidential debate with my nine year old daughter, she made an interesting point.

"I think it's interesting," she said with all seriousness. "Barack Obama is wearing a red tie.  He's a Democrat.  I would think they always wear blue."

I wasn't aware that she knew the difference between red states and blue states, but her point was well made.

Obama does usually tend to favor light blue ties (party affiliation not considered I am sure). 

But since I am no fashion-guru (nor am I as perceptive as my daughter), I turn you over to David Yarbrough, editor of the cool blog "Style Points".

He has a very pragmatic look at style in general, and his thoughts on "presidential style" is insightful:

And when it comes to running for president, the clothes must convey an air of authority and confidence when candidates are addressing American voters. Barack Obama and John McCain both look the part when it comes to wearing suits, with subtle differences in their individual styles.

Here's a link to his recent post on the subject  and another link to a post he penned for the site "Be Better Guys".

Thanks for reading.  TA

Wires In A Box

Friday night's debate was probably the first chance to hear both presidential candidates talk at length about issues.

The back and forth between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama was not scripted (despite obvious attempts by each to hammer very specific points over and over again) and it allowed viewers/voters to hear an unfiltered message from the men who want to be our next leader.

And while tens of millions of people watched the first of three presidential debates, far more people actually get issues information (or misinformation) from political ads.

The ads are everywhere, they are clever and expensive, and they generally provide most of what people learn about candidates.

There is a great website that catalogs not only this year's advertisements, but also the hundreds that aired in presidential elections past.

The site is maintained by the Museum Of The Moving Image and is called "The Living Room Candidate" (thanks to Mike McGuff for the tip).

Here's some background:

The Living Room Candidate contains more than 300 commercials, from every presidential election since 1952, when Madison Avenue advertising executive Rosser Reeves convinced Dwight Eisenhower that short ads played during such popular TV programs as I Love Lucy would reach more voters than any other form of advertising. This innovation had a permanent effect on the way presidential campaigns are run.

So go check them out and then come back to leave your thoughts as to which of the presidential ads (from any year) is your favorite and why.

Thanks for reading.  TA

Debatable

The first debate between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama is set for tonight.

As of the writing of this post, McCain had not reconfirmed his appearance.  Though most pundits expect he will show up in Mississippi for the first of three tussles.

There is also a VP debate scheduled between Senator Joe Biden and Governor Sarah Palin.

Each of the four debates has different formats and topics.  Here they are, according to the Commission on Presidential Debates, which hosts the events:

First presidential debate: foreign policy and national security, moderated by Jim Lehrer Friday, September 26, University of Mississippi, Oxford, Miss. -Two-minute answers, followed by five-minute discussion for each question.

Vice presidential debate: all topics, moderated by Gwen Ifill Thursday, October 2, Washington University in St. Louis, Mo. -Ninety-second answers, followed by two-minute discussion for each question. Two-minute closing statements.

Second presidential debate: all topics in town meeting format, moderated by Tom Brokaw Tuesday, October 7, Belmont University, Nashville, TN -Two-minute answers, followed by one-minute discussion for each question.

Third presidential debate: the economy and domestic policy, moderated by Bob Schieffer Wednesday, October 15, Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y. -Two-minute answers, followed by five-minute discussion for each question. Two-minute closing statements.

It's probably fair to say that McCain has more to gain from these debates than does Obama.  Given McCain's slip in the polls, and that Michigan seems to lean Obama at the moment, McCain needs a statement.

The Arizona Senator told me four years ago, right after the Bush/Kerry debate in Miami. that the first debate is always the most important.  And should McCain decide to debate tonight, this is his best chance to dent Obama's current momentum.

We are credentialed for all four debates, and we will be attending the VP debate in St. Louis next week.  We are also set to cover the final debate in Hempstead, NY later on October 15.

We look forward to seeing what effect, if any, these television events have in the sway of the campaign.

Thanks for reading. TA